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It hasn’t always happened, but World Cup host nations have on occasion, extracted maximum value from home advantage to build momentum, upset the odds and prolong their involvement into the latter stages of tournaments.
Unfancied Korea Republic (Fourth Place, 2002) and Russia (Quarter Finals, 2018) sides have trodden that path since the Millennium, indeed, 70% of the World Cup’s host nations since 1930 have reached the quarter-final phase or better.
There are layers of context to add to each story and caveats to consider too, though that trend is undeniably strong. But what happens when hosting duties are split?
For the first time ever, the FIFA World Cup will be hosted by three different nations this summer, with the 2026 edition shared between the USA, Canada and Mexico in a three-way North American operation.
To maintain as much public interest as possible, the USA, Canada and Mexico would ideally navigate their respective groups and push into the knockout rounds, but how likely is that to happen?
USA, Mexico and Canada’s chances at the 2026 World Cup: What do the markets say?
Sometimes it pays to follow the money and very little of it has been moving in the three host nations’ direction on the best World Cup betting sites.
The USA have been priced at 11/8 to win their group, with Mexico at 1/1 and Canada at 9/4 to top their respective sections, but after that the trio’s odds start to drift.
The United States are as long as 11/4 to reach the Last 16, with Mexico slightly shorter to reach the same stage at 9/4 and Canada longer at 15/8, which suggests bettors don’t expect any of the three host nations to pull up trees this summer.
Still, an examination of the pre-tournament betting odds is just one angle of analysis. Let’s dig a little deeper.
FIFA World Cup 2026: A favourable group for the USA
The United States have had arguably the easiest draw of the three hosts in the group stage, however, that does, in itself, increase the pressure on head coach Mauricio Pochettino to guide the Stars and Stripes into the knockouts.
The USA begin their campaign against Paraguay in Inglewood on June 12th, a team they beat 2-1 in a friendly encounter in November last year. The Paraguayans scraped over the line to qualify from the CONMEBOL region, despite winning only seven times in 18 attempts.
The USMNT also share Group D with the lowest-ranked team from pot two, Australia, who they play on matchday two in Seattle. The Socceroos emerged from the Asian qualification region, losing only once in ten fixtures in the last round there.
They did win only five times themselves however, and the USA managed to beat Australia (2-1) in a friendly encounter between the nations in October 2025. Australia competed at each of the last five World Cups, but exited at the group stage in three of the last four editions.
The wild card in Group D is Turkey, who booked their passage to the World Cup through the playoffs. They lost only once in eight qualifiers overall (vs Spain) and have more quality in their squad than any of the other sides in the section.
Still, if the Crescent-Stars take command to win the group, as expected, second place should still be open to the USA and they look best equipped of the three host nations in terms of staying power.
Their friendly defeats to Belgium (5-2) and Portugal (2-0) in March and April offered a timely reminder of the USA’s overall level, however, and they lack the class to compete with stronger outfits.
Key Players:
Chris Richards: An established Premier League performer for Crystal Palace, Richards is the archetypal modern centre-half. The 26-year-old still flies under the radar somewhat, though he has the right attributes and attitude to be a defensive leader this summer. Richards has three goals in 36 appearances for the USA.
Weston McKennie: The Juventus star provides energy and stability in midfield, though McKennie does have decent box-crashing ability too and has scored 12 times for the USA in 64 appearances. McKennie is a three-time CONCACAF Nations League winner with the USA.
Christian Pulisic: Still the poster boy of soccer in the States, Pulisic is the team’s talisman in attack and the fifth-highest goalscorer in the nation’s international history with 34 goals. His last goal for the USA was notched in November 2024 however, so Pulisic will want to get back on the scoring trail quickly this summer.
Prediction:
Last 16 exit (11/4) – Group D is one of the weaker-looking sections and the USA can profit to push into the knockout stage. The joint hosts should struggle when the level of competition becomes stiffer, but with a little luck, they can last until the Last 16.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Mexico to exorcise the ghosts of Qatar
There is a quiet optimism around Mexico’s prospects this summer and the positivity stems from the impact that head coach Javier Aguirre has made since returning to the gig.
Aguirre is enjoying a third spell at the helm for El Tri and will lead the Mexicans at a World Cup for the third time, having guided them to the Round of 16 in 2002 and 2010.
Under Aguirre, Mexico have found their fire again, winning back-to-back CONCACAF titles and the Nations League in March 2025, as well as the Gold Cup last year, when they beat the USA in the final in Houston (2-1).
This year, Mexico have held their own in a string of friendlies against World Cup participants, Portugal (0-0), Belgium (1-1) and Ghana (2-0), despite missing key players for each contest. Those results suggested Aguirre has built a unit strong enough to compete against anyone this summer.
Mexico have been placed in Group A alongside South Africa, South Korea and the Czech Republic, and are scheduled to play two of those opponents in Mexico City, where home advantage is increased by the high altitudes that the Mexicans are most familiar with.
Everything seems in place then for a prolonged Mexican push. They were dumped out at the group stage in Qatar (2022) and haven’t gone as far as the quarter-finals since 1986, exiting at the Round of 16 phase for seven successive tournaments after that.
Mexico did host the 1986 World Cup when they journeyed to the quarter final 40 years ago and they will feel like they have genuine hopes of emulating the heroes of ’86 this summer.
Key Players:
Gilberto Mora: Perhaps more a “one to watch” than a key player, 17-year-old Mora is considered a generational talent and his creativity could unlock defences this summer. Still attached to Tijuana at club level, Mora is being tracked closely by Real Madrid, Barcelona and Man City, and can sew up a deal when he turns 18 in October. He’ll be out to impress at the World Cup.
Edson Alvarez: The former Ajax and West Ham destroyer is now playing his club football in Turkey with Fenerbahce, though he has struggled with injuries this season. He’s fully fit again following ankle surgery however, and Alvarez will captain Mexico this summer. The hard-hitting midfielder adds real bite.
Raul Jimenez: Even though he has just turned 35, Jimenez will still be first-choice to spearhead the Mexican attack this summer. The veteran striker has bags of experience and still knows how to finish too. He scored nine times for Mexico in 2025 and he is just eight goals off Mexico’s all-time top scorer, Javier Hernandez (52).
Prediction:
Last 16 exit (9/4) – FIFA World Cup betting odds show Mexico as favourites tag to win Group A, and if they deliver, it would set up a Round of 32 clash in Mexico City for the hosts. However, if they come through that test, the plot of the fixtures could pair them with England (or a similarly strong opponent) in the Round of 16. That might be where El Tri’s adventure ends.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Can Canada avoid a group stage exit?
Canada’s last World Cup experience in 2022 was a humbling one as Les Rouges finished bottom of their group with three defeats in three games, returning to their homeland with tails firmly between their legs.
This time around, the co-hosts are hoping for better. Their chances of an improved performance were lifted when Bosnia & Herzegovina beat Italy in the UEFA qualification region to join Canada in Group B alongside Switzerland and Qatar.
The batter-hardened Swiss, who are an established big tournament side, look well placed to top Group B, though Canada will fancy their chances of claiming second place, though their meeting with Bosnia & Herzegovina in the section’s opener on June 12 in Toronto already feels like a massive game in that context.
Canada surprised many to finish fourth at the 2024 Copa America and were respectable quarter-finalists at each of the last two editions of the CONCACAF Nations League (2023, 2025).
All of that was achieved under the instruction of head coach Jesse Marsch, whose good work was rewarded by a new contract ahead of the World Cup, which runs until 2030.
Still, four wins from nine friendlies against largely modest opposition over the past 18 months have tempered expectations ahead of the summer, as have the Canadians’ lack of cutting edge in the final third. The Reds have scored just two goals from open play in its last seven matches combined.
Key Players:
Alphonso Davies: Canada’s captain and the only world-class operator in their squad, Davies can be deployed as a left back or on the left wing, though he is likely to feature in the latter role. The 25-year-old is good enough to win games on his own on occasion, though he will need support from his teammates to shine this summer. Davies is set to miss Canada’s first game through injury, however.
Jonathan David: The striker has played a bit-part role for Juventus in Italy this season, though he remains Canada’s main man in attack. David’s 39 international goals makes him Canada’s all-time leading scorer and the 26-year-old will be keen to show his best side this summer to try to engineer a transfer.
Tajon Buchanan: The Ontario native has been a regular for a strong Villarreal side in La Liga this season, where he has chipped in with seven goals in 21 starts from the flank. The 27-year-old has played 58 times for Canada, netting eight times, and his pace and trickery could help Canada to breach defences this summer.
Prediction:
Group Stage exit (3/1) – Canada could make history this summer if they manage to escape the group stage for the first time at a World Cup. However, with star player Alphonso Davies injured for their potential crucial Group B opener against Bosnia & Herzegovina, their chances look slimmer. If Canada do manage to squeeze through, don’t expect them to go much further.
