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Tennis fans couldn’t wish for a better spectacle on Sunday afternoon in London when the two best players in the world, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, square off in the Wimbledon Men’s final.
It’s the second major in a row where these two are contesting the championship match, and the margins are razor-thin between them. Read on as we uncover the best bets to make on Wimbledon this weekend, using the latest odds from tennis bookies.
Sinner vs Alcaraz: The rivalry
Sinner and Alcaraz have met 12 times previously, with Alcaraz leading the head-to-head by 8-4.
Most importantly, the Spaniard has won their last five meetings in a row, including just last month in the French Open final. There, he came back from two sets to love down, saving three match points on his way to Grand Slam number six.
The psychological edge that this gives Alcaraz is significant. It’s not like their meetings haven’t been close – four of the last five have gone to a final set, with two of those needing deciding tiebreaks. However, Alcaraz has consistently found a way to raise his level and get across the line.
Wimbledon Men’s final preview
The pair have had contrasting paths at Wimbledon 2025 so far.
For Sinner, he has breezed through all six of his matches in straight sets, but with one major caveat. In the round of 16, he lost his opening two sets to Grigor Dimitrov and was on the brink of exiting the tournament before the Bulgarian was unlucky enough to injury himself and withdraw from the match.
Alcaraz, on the other hand, has had plenty of more prolonged tussles. He went to five sets with veteran Fabio Fognini in his opener, and has dropped sets to Taylor Fritz, Jan-Lennard Struff and Andrey Rublev as well. However, he’s never really looked in danger of getting eliminated, thanks to his ability to raise his level when it matters.
Coming into Wimbledon, Alcaraz holds an edge in form. The Spaniard rides a 24-match win streak, alongside unbeaten runs on grass (18) and at Wimbledon (20).
Style-wise, both men have excellent, all-court games. Alcaraz leans towards a little more variation than Sinner does, who prefers hard-hitting, baseline hugging play.
Betting tips and prediction for Wimbledon Men’s final
Based on all of the above, here are the best three punts to make across tennis betting apps on the Wimbledon Men’s final this Sunday:
Alcaraz total games over 20.5 – 1.70 (7/10)
Both players to win a set and Alcaraz wins – 2.50 (3/2)
Three tiebreaks total – 11.00 (10/1)
Picking a winner in this rivalry is like guessing what’s going to happen next with crypto. On the balance of probability, Wimbledon does not look like the surface for Sinner to snap his losing streak in this head-to-head. However, it is still a close call, which is why two of the three bets we’re suggesting this weekend are not based on getting the winner correct.
First, backing Alcaraz to cross the 20.5-game mark is a strong market. Tennis bookmakers have this at a modest 1.70 (7/10), but the beauty is it likely pays regardless of the match outcome. Should Alcaraz win, chances are he’ll need four sets to do so and his games exceed 20.5. Lose, and he’ll likely make a fight of it and cross 20.5 still.
Similarly, picking Alcaraz to win and both to win a set is a relatively high return punt for what is the most likely outcome. The Spaniard should win this in four or five, and this bet covers both of those options.
But for those after a little more bang for their buck, how about taking a punt on three tiebreakers to occur again. Just last month, in the French Open final, three of the five sets Sinner and Alcaraz contested went to breakers.
Given this is grass, which favours holds and sets needing tiebreaks to determine a winner, I love this bet. There’s so little between the two – they’ve played 14 tiebreaks already in their rivalry – that it makes sense from a surface, form and head-to-head perspective.
