Outsiders, non-runners or dark horses? It’s difficult to put Brazil into any of those aforementioned categories ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and even trickier work to assess how their stateside adventure is likely to play out over the summer.
Brazil’s success on the World Cup stage is unmatched, though the record five-time winners haven’t lifted the trophy since 2002 and they were eliminated at the quarter-final stage in each of the last two editions of the competition in 2018 and 2022.
As fifth-favourites (evens) to win World Cup 2026 outright, the Seleção are less burdened by expectation than they’ve ever been pre-tournament, though plenty of optimism still remains, especially with Carlo Ancelotti at the helm.
Brazil’s 2026 World Cup awkward qualification route
For once, Brazil’s qualification journey to a World Cup wasn’t routine and though their passage rarely felt under threat, the Canarinho posted an underwhelming fifth-placed finish in the CONMEBOL region, behind Argentina, Ecuador, Colombia and Uruguay.
Brazil averaged just 1.33 goals per game during their campaign and changed managers half way through, with Carlo Ancelotti appointed in May 2025 to replace Dorival Júnior, who oversaw a disappointing quarter-final exit at the 2024 Copa America and an underwhelming start to the World Cup qualification gauntlet.
A heavy 4-1 loss to arch rivals Argentina (March 2025) triggered that managerial switcharoo and defensive improvements were notable straight away under Ancelotti, with Brazil conceding just one goal in their final four qualifiers under the Italian’s instruction.
Barcelona winger Raphinha was Brazil’s leading scorer in qualifiers with five goals, followed by Real Madrid’s Rodrygo (3), while 15 different players chipped in at least once. Goals from traditional centre forwards were notably absent however, but more on that later.
Some decent friendly results since, particularly in wins over South Korea (5-0) African champions Senegal (2-0) and Croatia (3-1), have emboldened Brazilian optimists, though solid performances across 90 minutes have been rare, with Brazil often blowing hot and cold.
Defeats to Japan (2-3) and France (1-2), as well as their friendly draw with Tunisia (1-1) highlight the team’s inability to maintain high standards.
World Cup 2026: Brazil’s Group C opponents
Brazil have been drawn alongside Morocco, Scotland and Haiti in Group C, a section the South American giants are fancied to top. That is, at least, according to the latest World Cup 2026 odds, which have the Brazilians priced as short as 1/6 to finish first.
Morocco: Brazil’s first Group C fixture is against Morocco at the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on June 13th. The Moroccans finished an historic 4th at the last World Cup in Qatar and enjoyed wins over Belgium, Spain and Portugal. In 2025, they set a record for successive wins in international football (19), and they have more than enough quality to ruffle more feathers in 2026. The outcome of this opening Group C fixture could well decide who tops the section.
Haiti: Brazil trounced Haiti 6-0 (2004) and 7-1 (2016) in the nations’ previous two meetings, however, this Les Grenadiers collective is stronger. With a squad packed with pace and power, Haiti won’t be pushovers in 2026 on their first appearance at a World Cup finals since 1974. Brazil meet Haiti at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia on June 19th.
Scotland: The Scots’ physical approach and all-action style has the potential to unsettle Brazil’s more technical game. Scotland emerged from a top qualification group ahead of Denmark and Greece, and they have great options in midfield with John McGinn (Aston Villa), Lewis Ferguson (Bologna), Ryan Christie (Bournemouth) and Scott McTominay (Napoli). Brazil face Scotland at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on June 24th.
World Cup 2026: Brazil’s Key Players
Raphinha – The flanksman was Brazil’s leading scorer with five goals in qualifying and already looks like a first pick for Ancelotti. The 29-year-old should be buoyant having just won La Liga with Barcelona, though Brazil will be crossing their fingers that Raphinha’s injury and fitness issues are behind him. The winger has had numerous hamstring problems this season.
Vinicius Junior – Vini Jr has had an inconsistent and often controversial campaign for Real Madrid at club level, however, when his mind is set, the wide attacker can be one of world football’s most devastating performers. The 25-year-old has been scratching at better form of late and Brazil will hope that he’s at the peak of his powers this summer.
Casemiro – The veteran midfielder has been enjoying the sweetest of swansong seasons at Manchester United, adding a consistent goal threat to his always solid defensive output. As captain, Casemiro’s experience will be vital at the World Cup, as will his ability to get first contact on the ball in both boxes during set pieces.
Marquinhos – The centre half will compete at his third World Cup this summer. Still just 31, Marquinhos has already amassed a century of caps for Brazil and his quality was evident during PSG’s run to a second successive Champions League final this season. Brazil look vulnerable at fullback, so Marquinho’s steadiness more central could be vital.
Brazil’s Strengths
Brazil’s attacking strategy is still built around individual brilliance, which can be effective with the right personnel. Players like Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo and Raphinha are capable of winning matches on their own, but if either are in a wasteful or selfish mood, it can create major issues.
Carlo Ancelotti has enviable depth across his frontline in general and his ability to deploy quality reinforcements off the bench could be a real plus point this summer, especially if temperatures soar and freshness becomes more important.
There are whispers that Neymar could even be brought along if he proves his fitness. The 34-year-old was named in Ancelotti’s preliminary squad for the World Cup in mid-May and Brazil’s all-time record goalscorer (79 goals), has shown flashes of brilliance for Santos in his homeland.
Though it rubs against their more technical, free-wheeling traditions, Brazil have a midfield packed with aggression, endeavour and industry. Casemiro, Bruno Guimaraes, Andre, Gerson and the emerging Andrey Santos (if chosen to travel) can combine to create a combative unit capable of skirmishing with the best of them.
Brazil’s strength at centre back is also obvious. Marquinhos and Arsenal’s Gabriel Marquinhos are likely to start, though Bremer (Juventus) and Thiago Silva (FC Porto) are more than able deputies if and when they’re required to slot in.
Brazil’s Weaknesses
Ask any Brazilian fan or devotee about their team’s biggest issues and most will highlight the inconsistency of their performances. Brazil tend to play well in halves rather than full games, which is something Ancelotti will need to iron out quickly if they are to make decent progress at the World Cup.
Brazil are also light on quality in both fullback positions with Danilo and Alex Sandro, aged 33 and 34 respectively, still heavily involved, and newer faces like Vanderson (Monaco) and Wesley (Roma) failing to convince.
The lack of progressive passing and creativity through midfield has also been highlighted, which can sometimes leave Brazil’s frontline underserviced. Players like Lucas Paquetá (Flamengo) and Matheus Cunha (Man Utd) could make a difference there, though finding room for either in the starting XI could prove tough.
At centre forward, Ancelotti has more decisions to make in the absence of a sure-fire starter. Richarlison (Tottenham), Joao Pedro (Chelsea) and international newcomer Igor Thiago (Brentford) will all stake claims.
Richarlison’s fine strike rate at international level (20 goals in 54 games) could give him the edge over Joao Pedro, who has never scored for Brazil, and Thiago, who only has two caps.
The Brentford frontman is the Premier League’s second-leading scorer this term behind Erling Haaland, though 36% of his 22 goals have come from the penalty spot and Thiago (14) has actually scored fewer times from open play than Joao Pedro (15)
Can Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Most FIFA World Cup betting predictions that have been published have positioned Brazil just outside the leading pack of contenders in the outright stakes, with an exit at the quarter stage (or semi-final at a push) a likelier outcome for his talented but flawed Seleção side.
Brazil’s arduous efforts during their qualification campaign are difficult to ignore and though the appointment of serial winner Carlo Ancelotti has been cause for optimism, the issues in terms of personnel and personalities in the squad are still there.
The squad is creaking in defence and midfield in terms of average age too, raising question marks over Brazil’s ability to keep pace with their opponents’ younger legs.
Brazil’s quarter-final exit at Qatar 2022 and their subsequent elimination at the same stage at the 2024 Copa America feel informative and could well be the Brazilians’ “level” at present. I expect them to fall short once they encounter one of the tournament’s stronger teams in the knockouts.
