{"id":9105,"date":"2020-10-20T10:19:58","date_gmt":"2020-10-20T09:19:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/?p=9105"},"modified":"2024-05-30T15:16:26","modified_gmt":"2024-05-30T14:16:26","slug":"ufc-betting-tips-how-to-pick-a-live-underdog","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/sports\/mma\/ufc-betting-tips-how-to-pick-a-live-underdog\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Betting Tips: How to Pick a Live Underdog"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"9105\" class=\"elementor elementor-9105\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-59a2e21b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"59a2e21b\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-150b3432\" data-id=\"150b3432\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7a3a32d5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7a3a32d5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The safest move in sports betting is to put your money on the favourite. The oddsmakers generally know what they are doing. While that might be the safest move to win a bet, it isn\u2019t the best way to win money. It also isn\u2019t as fun and exciting as hitting on an underdog \u2013 that\u2019s where the real money, and exhilarating thrills, are found.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Now, how to do you find yourself a \u201clive dog\u201d on a UFC card? Obviously, all underdogs aren\u2019t built the same. So how do you separate the \u201clive dogs\u201d from the just plain \u201cdogs\u201d. Here\u2019s how.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>Crunching the Numbers<\/strong><\/h2>\n<!-- \/wp:heading --><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Luckily for you, I\u2019ve crunched the numbers on every fight that has taken place in the UFC in 2020 \u2013 almost 360 fights in total. You\u2019re welcome. And I\u2019ve found some interesting data that can help answer the above question as to how to pick a winning underdog.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First off, only 33% of betting underdogs heading into a fight win the fight. That makes it imperative to try to zero in on the correct dogs. The typical UFC card has 12-13 fights on it, so that means on average there will be about four betting underdogs coming through. Now, our task is to figure out who those four could be.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>Look for the Striking Stats<\/strong><\/h2>\n<!-- \/wp:heading --><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most important factor in picking a winning fighter in a UFC fight in 2020 is striking stats. Apparently, striking wins fights, plain and simple. Go to the UFCStats.com website and call up a fight card. Call up each fighter\u2019s striking stats. Whichever fighter\u2019s career striking stats are superior to his\/her opponent\u2019s go on to win their fight 72% of the time. That\u2019s a huge number. This doesn\u2019t help us any when one of the fighters in a contest is a UFC newcomer \u2013 the site only tracks UFC fights \u2013 but if it is UFC veterans butting heads, it\u2019s golden.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:image {\"id\":9106,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} \/--><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Ok, so underdogs with superior striking are a yes to bet on. How about fighters who come in overweight? MMA is, unfortunately, still all about weight cutting \u2013 drastically cutting water weight in the hours leading up to the weigh-in for a fight in order to meet their particular fight\u2019s weight limit \u2013 then rehydrating back to their original weight (or even higher) by fight time. The whole thought is \u201cbigger is better\u201d in a fight. This would lead you to think a fighter that comes in overweight for a fight (aka \u201cmisses weight\u201d) would have a distinct advantage come fight night. However, fighters that miss weight in 2020 have only won one in three fights \u2013 33%. Steer clear of any underdogs that come in overweight the day before a fight.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>Late Replacements Tend to Lose Fights<\/strong><\/h2>\n<!-- \/wp:heading --><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Striking \u2013 check. Overweight \u2013 not check. How about late replacement fighters, something that has been happening with more frequency during the pandemic. If a fighter is added to a fight with less than a month to prepare for it, they lose 63% of the time. That means any underdog that is plugged into a fight last minute \u2013 and normally these fighters are betting underdogs \u2013 you should avoid putting money down on them.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The last stat that can help you pick an underdog winner is age. While experience \u2013 aka \u201cring savvy\u201d \u2013 can take you far in a fight, it turns out the younger a fighter is, the better. The younger fighter in a UFC fight in 2020 has won 61% of the time. And often these younger fighters will be newcomers and\/or unheralded pugilists, meaning they will very often be the betting underdog on the board heading into a fight. Which can be good news for your bank account.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>The Numbers: 5 Rules for Picking a UFC Underdog<\/strong><\/h2>\n<!-- \/wp:heading --><!-- wp:table {\"backgroundColor\":\"subtle-pale-blue\",\"className\":\"is-style-stripes\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\">\n<table class=\"has-subtle-pale-blue-background-color has-background\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><em>Underdogs only win <strong>33%<\/strong> of their UFC match-ups.<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><em>The superior striker wins <strong>72%<\/strong> of the time.<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><em>Fighters who miss weight will lose <strong>67%<\/strong> of their fights.<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><em>Late replacements lose <strong>63%<\/strong> of their bouts.<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><em>Younger UFC fighters come out on top <strong>61%<\/strong> of the time.<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n<!-- \/wp:table --><!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"#primary .entry-content .content-box .title { margin: -2rem -2rem 1rem -2rem; padding: 0.5rem 2rem 0.5rem 1rem; display: block; font-weight: bold; color: #FFF; font-size: 1.125rem; }\"} -->\n<ul class=\"#primary .entry-content .content-box .title { margin: -2rem -2rem 1rem -2rem; padding: 0.5rem 2rem 0.5rem 1rem; display: block; font-weight: bold; color: #FFF; font-size: 1.125rem; }\">\n<li><em>Underdogs only win <strong>33%<\/strong> of their UFC match-ups.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>The superior striker wins <strong>72%<\/strong> of the time.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Fighters who miss weight will lose <strong>67%<\/strong> of their fights.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Late replacements lose <strong>63%<\/strong> of their bouts.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Younger UFC fighters come out on top <strong>61%<\/strong> of the time.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<!-- \/wp:list --><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Now your training is complete, young one. Go forth and make your sensei proud.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-fd16b0e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"fd16b0e\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-9f2035e\" data-id=\"9f2035e\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-651e7c0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"651e7c0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Underdogs only win 33% of their UFC match-ups<\/p>\n<p>The superior striker wins\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The safest move in sports betting is to put your money on the favourite. The oddsmakers generally know what they are doing. While that might be the safest move to win a bet, it isn\u2019t the best way to win money. It also isn\u2019t as fun and exciting as hitting on an underdog \u2013 that\u2019s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":39465,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[200],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mma"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>UFC Betting Tips: How to Pick a Live Underdog - MansionBet Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Our MMA expert tipster explains how to use fighter statistics to help you to profit by betting on live UFC underdogs.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/sports\/mma\/ufc-betting-tips-how-to-pick-a-live-underdog\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UFC Betting Tips: How to Pick a Live Underdog - MansionBet Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our MMA expert tipster explains how to use fighter statistics to help you to profit by betting on live UFC underdogs.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/sports\/mma\/ufc-betting-tips-how-to-pick-a-live-underdog\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"MansionBet Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-10-20T09:19:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-05-30T14:16:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/mansionbet-general-image-800x500-1.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jeff Fox\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@https:\/\/twitter.com\/jefffoxwriter\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jeff Fox\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/sports\/mma\/ufc-betting-tips-how-to-pick-a-live-underdog\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/sports\/mma\/ufc-betting-tips-how-to-pick-a-live-underdog\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jeff Fox\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/d39a18763d9c110925d7f1e47dc445d1\"},\"headline\":\"UFC Betting Tips: How to Pick a Live Underdog\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-10-20T09:19:58+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-05-30T14:16:26+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/sports\/mma\/ufc-betting-tips-how-to-pick-a-live-underdog\/\"},\"wordCount\":735,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/sports\/mma\/ufc-betting-tips-how-to-pick-a-live-underdog\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/mansionbet-general-image-800x500-1.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"MMA\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/sports\/mma\/ufc-betting-tips-how-to-pick-a-live-underdog\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/sports\/mma\/ufc-betting-tips-how-to-pick-a-live-underdog\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.mansionbet.com\/blog\/sports\/mma\/ufc-betting-tips-how-to-pick-a-live-underdog\/\",\"name\":\"UFC Betting Tips: How to Pick a Live Underdog - 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